Capitulation candle: what it is and how often it works
A big, fast drop: 3 times the usual hourly move or more under the 4-hour high, most of it in the last 90 minutes, on the day's biggest volume, ending in a candle with a long lower wick (half its range). Traders also call it a capitulation candle.
On ETH over the past year, price reached the target before going wrong in 54 of every 100 of these (127 in all). Buying at a random time with the same target and stop did it 47 times in 100. On BTC it did worse than random.
Proven on ETH. Still being tested on BTC, HYPE, SPCX and ZEC.
It comes up about 2 a week on each coin.
Get it free on your phone ›How to spot it
- Price is at least 3 times its usual hourly move below the 4-hour high, and most of that drop (60%) came in the last 90 minutes.
- The low candle has the day's biggest volume (or 3 times its typical volume) and a lower wick at least half its height.
- The alert comes when the next candle closes above that low.
How the alert is meant to be used
Each alert gives three prices: where the candle closed (the alert price), the line it's wrong under, and the target. The record on this page assumes buying at the alert price, then whichever comes first within 24 hours:
- Target: +1% from the alert price, within 24 hours.
- Wrong if a 15-minute candle closes under the wick's low. A wick under the line doesn't count; a close does.
- Neither within 24 hours: counted as neither.
The edge is a few more times in 100 than random timing: it helps with timing, not with size. A strong trend can swamp it either way.
A real one: ETH on 10/25
How often it works, by coin
| Coin | Result | Found | Reached the target first | Random buy, same exits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Still being tested | 125 in a year | 37% | 38% |
| ETH | Proven | 127 in a year | 54% | 47% |
| HYPE | Still being tested | 14 in 90 days | 36% | 49% |
| SPCX | Still being tested | 34 in 90 days | 41% | 37% |
| ZEC | Still being tested | 67 in a year | 72% | 67% |
"Reached the target first": of every 100 of these, how many reached the target before a 15-minute close under the line. "Random buy": the same coin bought at random times of the same hour, volatility and month, with the same target and stop. Proven means it beat random timing over a full year (Binance candles, 8/2025 to 9/2026, the rule fixed in advance). HYPE and SPCX have 90 days of data so far. How we test
Recorded live since 10/16
Since 10/16, after the test data ends, every one is recorded the moment its candle closes: 24 on 5 coins so far. Of the 24 that ended, 13 reached the target, 11 went wrong and 0 did neither in 24 hours. Too few yet to judge on their own. The full track record
| When | Coin | Alert | How it went | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/2 06:30 | SPCX | 137.03 | closed under the line | chart |
| 10/30 08:00 | SPCX | 138.22 | reached the target | chart |
| 10/29 19:30 | SPCX | 139.29 | reached the target | chart |
| 10/29 08:00 | SPCX | 143.75 | closed under the line | chart |
| 10/28 08:30 | SPCX | 144.12 | reached the target | chart |
| 10/25 21:45 | SPCX | 148.19 | closed under the line | chart |
| 10/25 18:00 | ETH | 2,328.8 | closed under the line | chart |
| 10/25 03:45 | ETH | 2,325.6 | reached the target | chart |
What the alert says
Down 2.0% from the 4h high, mostly in 90 minutes, on the day's biggest volume; a long lower wick, then a close above it. Wrong if a 15-minute candle closes under 2,317.1. Target 2,348.9 (+1%).
Questions
What is a capitulation candle?
A big, fast drop on the day's heaviest volume that ends in a long lower wick: sellers gave up all at once, and buyers pushed price back up off the low.
How do you know capitulation is over?
You can't know for sure. The rule waits for the next 15-minute candle to close above the wick's low, and it's wrong if a candle closes back under it.
Which coins does the capitulation work on?
Proven on ETH: there it beat buying at a random time over a full year. Still being tested on BTC, HYPE, SPCX and ZEC.
Where is the capitulation wrong?
If a 15-minute candle closes under the wick's low. Only a close counts: a wick under the line and back doesn't.
How often does it happen?
On 15-minute candles, about 2 a week on each coin.
Free, no sign-up. The price, the line it's wrong under and the target, the moment the candle closes.