Selling climax (volume spike, then calm): what it is and how often it works
During a dip of 1.5 times the usual hourly move under the 4-hour high, one 15-minute candle trades 3 times its usual volume. The next one is calmer (under 60% of that) and closes above the spike candle's low. Traders also call it a selling climax.
On ZEC over the past year, price reached the target before going wrong in 83 of every 100 of these (162 in all). Buying at a random time with the same target and stop did it 75 times in 100. On ETH it did worse than random.
Proven on ZEC. Still being tested on BTC, ETH, HYPE and SPCX.
It comes up about 3 a week on each coin.
Get it free on your phone ›How to spot it
- Price is in a dip of at least 1.5 times its usual hourly move below the 4-hour high.
- One 15-minute candle trades at least 3 times the day's typical volume: the spike.
- The alert comes at the next candle's close, if that candle is calmer (under 60% of the spike's volume) and closes above the spike candle's low. One per dip.
How the alert is meant to be used
Each alert gives three prices: where the candle closed (the alert price), the line it's wrong under, and the target. The record on this page assumes buying at the alert price, then whichever comes first within 24 hours:
- Target: +0.5% from the alert price, within 24 hours.
- Wrong if a 15-minute candle closes under the dip's lowest price so far. A wick under the line doesn't count; a close does.
- Neither within 24 hours: counted as neither.
The edge is a few more times in 100 than random timing: it helps with timing, not with size. A strong trend can swamp it either way.
A real one: ZEC on 10/21
How often it works, by coin
| Coin | Result | Found | Reached the target first | Random buy, same exits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Still being tested | 126 in a year | 56% | 54% |
| ETH | Still being tested | 133 in a year | 63% | 64% |
| HYPE | Still being tested | 31 in 90 days | 71% | 65% |
| SPCX | Still being tested | 29 in 90 days | 59% | 55% |
| ZEC | Proven | 162 in a year | 83% | 75% |
"Reached the target first": of every 100 of these, how many reached the target before a 15-minute close under the line. "Random buy": the same coin bought at random times of the same hour, volatility and month, with the same target and stop. Proven means it beat random timing over a full year (Binance candles, 8/2025 to 9/2026, the rule fixed in advance). HYPE and SPCX have 90 days of data so far. How we test
Recorded live since 10/16
Since 10/16, after the test data ends, every one is recorded the moment its candle closes: 16 on 5 coins so far. Of the 16 that ended, 11 reached the target, 5 went wrong and 0 did neither in 24 hours. Too few yet to judge on their own. The full track record
| When | Coin | Alert | How it went | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/29 13:30 | HYPE | 93.88 | closed under the line | chart |
| 10/28 20:30 | HYPE | 78.40 | closed under the line | chart |
| 10/28 11:15 | HYPE | 80.01 | reached the target | chart |
| 10/28 09:00 | SPCX | 144.06 | reached the target | chart |
| 10/21 18:30 | BTC | 84,193 | closed under the line | chart |
| 10/21 17:45 | ZEC | 1,312.9 | reached the target | chart |
| 10/21 13:30 | ETH | 2,498.5 | closed under the line | chart |
| 10/21 11:15 | HYPE | 80.92 | reached the target | chart |
What the alert says
Volume 13× its usual on one candle in a dip, then a calmer one that held its low. Wrong if a 15-minute candle closes under 1,301.3. Target 1,319.5 (+0.5%).
Questions
What is a selling climax?
A burst of heavy selling on very high volume, after which the selling dries up. Here: in a dip, one 15-minute candle trades 3 times the usual volume, and the next is calmer and holds that candle's low.
What does a volume spike mean in crypto?
A lot changed hands at once, often forced or panicked selling in a dip. On its own it says little; the rule waits for what comes after: calmer volume, and the spike's low holding.
Which coins does the volume spike, then calm work on?
Proven on ZEC: there it beat buying at a random time over a full year. Still being tested on BTC, ETH, HYPE and SPCX.
Where is the volume spike, then calm wrong?
If a 15-minute candle closes under the dip's lowest price so far. Only a close counts: a wick under the line and back doesn't.
How often does it happen?
On 15-minute candles, about 3 a week on each coin.
Free, no sign-up. The price, the line it's wrong under and the target, the moment the candle closes.